Tesla Pegs Q2 Delivery Consensus at 406,000 Vehicles, 13.8 GWh of Storage

Tesla has put out its company-compiled analyst consensus for the second quarter of 2026, and the number to know is 406,000 vehicles.

That figure is not a delivery result. It is the average of analyst estimates Tesla collected and published ahead of its actual Q2 report.

The same consensus pegs energy storage deployment at 13.8 GWh for the quarter.

Tesla has just released their company compiled Q2 analyst delivery consensus.

Analysts expect @Tesla to deliver 406,000 vehicles in Q2 2026, and deploy 13.8 GWh of energy storage this quarter. pic.twitter.com/8qbW4vtUiA

— Sawyer Merritt (@SawyerMerritt) June 26, 2026

According to Tesla Investor Relations, the company assembles these values from participating sell-side analysts and publishes the table before the actual production-and-delivery release.

Tesla also puts a clear boundary around the numbers. It is not endorsing the analysts’ recommendations or conclusions, and the Q2 figures are estimates rather than Tesla guidance.

The headline consensus lands around 406,000 total deliveries, with Model 3 and Model Y carrying 392,625 of that count. That leaves just under 13,000 in the all-other-models bucket, where Model S, Model X, and Cybertruck sit.

The median estimate is higher, at about 408,600, and the Q2 standard deviation is 14,922 vehicles. That relatively tight spread is why the 406,000 area is the real expectation band heading into Tesla’s final report.

The same table puts Q2 energy storage at 13.8 GWh, which is what makes this more interesting than a simple car-count preview. The vehicle side is recovering, but storage is the lane analysts expect to snap back harder.

Tesla has released its Q2 2026 delivery consensus:

Model 3/Y: 392,625
All other models: 12,978
Total deliveries: 406,026

Actual Q1 2026 deliveries were:
Model 3/Y: 341,893
Other models: 16,130
Total deliveries: 358,023 pic.twitter.com/oJVaSmhCAr

— Drive Tesla 🇨🇦 (@DriveTeslaca) June 26, 2026

Drive Tesla framed the quarter as a rebound off a slow start to the year, and the quarter-over-quarter table shows why.

Actual Q1 2026 deliveries came in at 358,023, so the Q2 consensus represents a 13.4 percent jump from the first quarter. Model 3 and Model Y carry almost all of that recovery, rising 14.8 percent from Q1’s 341,893.

The all-other-models group moves the other direction, sliding from 16,130 in Q1 to the projected 12,978. That bucket includes Cybertruck along with Model S and Model X, so the rebound story is still mostly a Model 3 and Model Y story.

Drive Tesla also highlighted the storage side of the table. Analysts expect 13.8 GWh in Q2, up from 8.8 GWh in Q1 and close to the 14.2 GWh Tesla deployed in Q4 2025.

The practical effect of Tesla publishing this for a third straight quarter is transparency. Retail investors can see the same baseline expectations before the final numbers arrive, instead of chasing scattered analyst notes after the market has already priced them in.

Electrek put the bigger picture in context, and the year-over-year math cools some of the rebound enthusiasm.

The 406,000 consensus would be up only about 5.7 percent from Q2 2025, when Tesla delivered 384,122 vehicles. So the sequential bounce is partly recovery from a weak first quarter, not a clean return to explosive vehicle growth.

The full-year 2026 consensus now sits near 1.655 million deliveries, trimmed down from a prior 1.690 million estimate published around Tesla’s Q1 consensus. That is a cut of roughly 35,000 vehicles in the annual view.

Electrek’s longer-range table also shows how uncertain the vehicle story remains. Analysts still model growth into 2027, 2028, 2029, and 2030, but the spread gets wide enough that nobody should treat those out-year delivery numbers like settled facts.

Storage is cleaner. The same consensus has Tesla Energy at 57.9 GWh for 2026, 79.8 GWh in 2027, and 150.1 GWh by 2030, which is why the energy side keeps looking like the brighter growth engine heading into the back half of the year.

The takeaway for shareholders is straightforward. The vehicle business is steadying after a rough opening quarter, the storage business keeps building momentum, and the only number that ultimately counts is the one Tesla reports when the actual quarter closes.