Tesla’s Q2 Consensus Puts Revenue at $27.6 Billion and Capex at $6.7 Billion

Tesla has put a fresh set of numbers on the table before its second-quarter earnings report, and the setup is bigger than the delivery count alone.

The company-compiled analyst consensus calls for $27.584 billion in Q2 revenue, $1.288 billion in net income and $5.378 billion in gross profit.

Those are estimates, not Tesla guidance. Still, they give everyone watching the July 22 report a clean measuring stick for revenue, margins and the extraordinary amount of money Tesla is expected to invest this quarter.

Tesla has released their company-compiled earnings consensus estimates of sell-side analysts for Q2 2026.

Analysts expect ~$27.6B in revenue and $1.3B in net income for Q2 2026. pic.twitter.com/aNQNrR0hTH

— Chris Tully (@ctully152311) July 18, 2026

Tesla Investor Relations says the Q2 averages were compiled from 23 sell-side analysts for most income-statement lines. Automotive revenue is expected to reach $20.048 billion, while energy generation and storage is pegged at $3.773 billion and services and other revenue at $3.763 billion.

The same sheet puts gross margin at 19.5%, operating income at $1.503 billion and operating margin at 5.4%. Average per-share estimates land at $0.36 under GAAP and $0.55 on a non-GAAP basis.

Tesla is careful about what the table means. The company says it does not endorse the analysts’ information, recommendations or conclusions.

This is a market baseline for the quarter, not management promising that these are the numbers it will report.

In the Q1 2026 update, Tesla Investor Relations reported $22.387 billion in first-quarter revenue, including $16.234 billion from automotive, $2.408 billion from energy and $3.745 billion from services and other operations.

Gross profit reached $4.720 billion, with a 21.1% gross margin and a 4.2% operating margin. Tesla also reported $0.13 in GAAP earnings per share and $1.444 billion in free cash flow for the quarter.

Operating cash flow was $3.937 billion against $2.493 billion in capital spending. Cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments ended March at $44.743 billion.

If the new consensus is on target, total revenue would rise 23.2% from Q1. Automotive revenue would climb 23.5%, and energy revenue would jump 56.7%.

Services revenue would be almost flat.

The margin picture is more complicated. Analysts see gross margin slipping from Q1’s actual 21.1% to 19.5%, even as operating margin improves from 4.2% to 5.4%.

Gross profit would increase about 13.9%, while operating income would rise nearly 60% because operating expenses are expected to grow much more slowly than revenue.

The compact number sheet also reveals the figure likely to drive some of the toughest questions on the call.

Tesla Q2 2026 sell-side consensus (23 analysts, per company-compiled estimates):

Revenue: $27,584M avg ($27,965M median)
Gross margin: 19.5%
Operating margin: 5.4%
Net income (common): $1,276M avg
EPS GAAP: $0.36 | non-GAAP: $0.55
FCF: -$3,254M avg
Cash & securities: $40,998M…

— Hioldsport (@JianfengWei82) July 18, 2026

Analysts average $3.445 billion in operating cash flow against $6.698 billion in capital spending. The consensus table reports an average free-cash-flow deficit of $3.254 billion for Q2.

Tesla generated $1.444 billion in free cash flow during Q1 and finished March with $44.743 billion in cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments. The Q2 consensus puts cash and marketable securities at $40.998 billion, a sequential decline of roughly $3.745 billion.

The cash burn would arrive alongside a major buildout, so the number needs context. Tesla will have to connect that $6.7 billion in quarterly spending to specific capacity, timelines and returns.

In Q1, Tesla said its 2026 spending program was supporting AI compute, battery-cell production, battery materials and refining, new manufacturing projects, and the Cybercab, Semi and Megapack 3 lines. Those are real programs with huge ambition, but this earnings call needs to show how quickly that investment can become useful output.

In the July 2 filing, Tesla Investor Relations established the quarter’s operating scale. The company produced 451,758 vehicles and delivered 480,126, including 467,762 Model 3 and Model Y vehicles and 12,364 other models.

Deliveries exceeded production by 28,368 vehicles.

Tesla also deployed 13.5 GWh of energy-storage products in Q2. That deployment figure gives the expected 56.7% sequential increase in energy revenue a real operating foundation rather than leaving it as a spreadsheet assumption.

The filing also carries an important warning: deliveries and storage deployments are only two measures of performance. Average selling prices, cost of sales, foreign-exchange movements and other factors will determine how much of that volume reaches the income statement.

For the full year, analysts average $105.221 billion in revenue, a 19.7% gross margin, $25.319 billion in capital spending and negative $9.852 billion in free cash flow. They also see 1,728,925 vehicle deliveries and 55.3 GWh of energy deployments.

After Tesla’s reported first-half deliveries and energy deployments, reaching those annual averages would require 890,776 deliveries and 33 GWh of energy deployments in the second half. That works out to about 445,388 vehicles and 16.5 GWh per quarter.

Tesla reports after the market closes Wednesday, July 22, with the webcast set for 4:30 p.m. Central. The bar is clear now: turn the quarter’s higher volume into stronger revenue and operating profit, then show why this investment surge is worth the cash it consumes.