SpaceX Stock Has Nearly Halved From Its Peak. Tesla Is Feeling the Pressure Too

SpaceX’s first full month as a public company just turned into a serious stress test.

Shares raced above $225 after the company’s record-setting June debut. They have since surrendered nearly half that peak.

Tesla is taking a hit at the same time. Its stock lost more than 18% over the past week as investors looked past strong revenue growth and focused on the cost of Elon Musk’s enormous AI and manufacturing buildout.

The stock pain is real. So is the scale of what both companies are still building.

That is the fight now: Wall Street wants proof that the next wave of rockets, satellites, compute, Robotaxis, robots, and factories can arrive fast enough to justify the spending behind them.

Some SpaceX bulls see the pullback less as a broken company than a brutal reset in expectations.

🚨 THE SPACEX “FAILED IPO” IS THE SETUP EVERYONE MISSES

I told you this drop was coming $SPCX is now down nearly 50% from its peak. This is the part I've been waiting for.

The timeline is screaming "failed IPO." They're right about the price and dead wrong about why.

The real… https://t.co/bvNuYuDcmH pic.twitter.com/zjT1iJyKPL

— Shelpid.WI3M (@Shelpid_WI3M) July 27, 2026

The post-IPO honeymoon ended fast.

The Washington Post reported early Monday that SpaceX had fallen from an all-time high above $225 to roughly half that level. The drop came just weeks after one of the largest public offerings on record turned the company into a daily public-market story.

The pressure is bigger than one ugly chart. SpaceX now has analyst ratings, quarterly expectations, lock-up calendars, and millions of investors judging every launch delay, spending decision, and new business claim in real time.

The same report put Tesla’s weekly decline above 18%. Its second-quarter numbers showed a much larger company than a year ago, but the market zeroed in on higher costs, lower near-term profitability, and the amount of capital required to push Cybercab, Optimus, AI compute, batteries, semiconductors, and new factories forward at once.

That does not mean SpaceX’s decline mechanically caused every move in Tesla. It does mean investors are grading two Musk-led public companies through the same lens: how much cash goes in, how quickly useful capacity comes out, and when those investments begin producing durable returns.

SpaceX came public with a massive war chest.

SpaceX priced 555,555,555 Class A shares at $135 each on June 11. That works out to roughly $75 billion in gross primary proceeds before fees and before any exercise of the underwriters’ option.

The shares began trading under SPCX on Nasdaq and Nasdaq Texas the next day. SpaceX also gave its underwriters a 30-day option to buy as many as 83,333,333 additional newly issued shares at the IPO price.

This was not a founder cash-out disguised as a growth story. The offering was 100% primary capital intended to go into the company.

That structure gave SpaceX a huge pool of new money for expansion while leaving existing shareholders’ stock outside the offering itself. It also made the market’s expectations unusually high from day one.

The SEC filing said the proceeds would support AI compute infrastructure, launch sites and vehicles, and larger satellite constellations. SpaceX’s roadshow materials showed why the bill is so large: the company reported $18.7 billion in 2025 revenue and $20.7 billion in capital expenditures.

The business mix was uneven but substantial. SpaceX reported $7.2 billion in 2025 adjusted EBITDA from connectivity, while its space segment produced $700 million after $3 billion of Starship research and development spending.

The younger AI segment posted an adjusted EBITDA loss of $1.2 billion.

Those are company-defined, non-GAAP measures, but they reveal the central bet. Starlink and launch operations are expected to help finance an even bigger push into Starship, satellite capacity, and AI infrastructure.

The filing also gave investors a supply calendar. Musk’s shares carry a 366-day lock-up, while portions held by other investors, officers, and directors are scheduled for staggered releases.

The company disclosed that overhang before the offering, but public markets will keep repricing it as each window approaches.

Tesla is making its own all-in investment.

Tesla is running a similar playbook: use the strength of today’s business to build several capital-heavy businesses before their revenue arrives at full scale.

Elon Musk Says Tesla's Spending Spree Is the 'Fastest Industrial Scale-Up Since World War II' as 2026 Shapes Up to Be a 'Massive CapEx Year'

Elon Musk is casting Tesla's ($TSLA) surging spending as a historic bet, calling it the fastest industrial scale-up since World War II as… pic.twitter.com/QRjBOpeeAg

— Benzinga (@Benzinga) July 27, 2026

Tesla’s second-quarter 10-Q reported $28.236 billion in revenue, up 26% from a year earlier. Net income attributable to common stockholders was $1.114 billion, down from $1.172 billion.

Research and development expense jumped 49% to $2.371 billion for the quarter. Capital expenditures reached $8.28 billion in the first half, more than double the $3.89 billion spent during the same period last year.

Tesla now expects to spend more than $25 billion in 2026. The company says that money is going toward AI compute and data centers, manufacturing and research lines, company-operated AI assets, and a larger retail, service, and charging footprint.

It has room to move. Tesla ended June with $43.52 billion in cash, cash equivalents, and short-term investments.

Operating cash flow for the first half rose to $8.63 billion.

But having the money does not remove the burden of proof. Investors still want to see that higher spending becomes more Cybercabs, more useful autonomous miles, a real Optimus production ramp, stronger energy growth, and businesses that can support Tesla’s valuation without requiring endless patience.

There is also a direct financial link between the companies.

Tesla disclosed that it invested $2 billion in SpaceX common stock during the first half of 2026. It measures that investment at fair value every quarter and records realized and unrealized gains or losses in other income.

That does not make TSLA a simple proxy for SPCX. It does give Tesla shareholders a concrete reason to watch SpaceX’s market value beyond the fact that Musk leads both companies.

The next answer has to come from execution.

The selloff does not erase SpaceX’s launch infrastructure, Starlink’s scale, or Tesla’s revenue growth and cash position.

It also cannot be waved away as meaningless noise.

Public investors bought into two of the most expensive industrial expansion plans on the planet. They are now demanding visible progress on timelines that engineering teams, factories, launch pads, regulators, and supply chains do not always respect.

SpaceX has to turn its IPO capital into greater launch cadence, more network capacity, and AI revenue. Tesla has to turn its spending surge into products and services that can carry the next stage of growth.

Both companies still have extraordinary assets. Both now have stock charts that make patience harder to sell.

For the first time, Wall Street can grade Musk’s two biggest platforms side by side every day. The answer will not come from another promise or another price target.

It will come from output.